World Cup Qualifying Preview

I should say from the outset - if you don’t like football geekery, you're probably going to find the next 600 words very boring. Have a look at some of my pictures instead...

On Saturday, despite most Brazilian stadia currently consisting of muddy fields and tutting trade union officials, the draw will be made for the 2014 World Cup qualifiers. The pots, decided via the watertight, inarguable science of the FIFA World Rankings, are listed below:

A: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece

B: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia

C: Switzerland, Israel, Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary

D: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland

E: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands

F: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

From these, 13 nations will advance to the finals. The exact way it’s decided is quite boring, so if you really care that much, I’ve explained at the bottom of the article, but essentially it’s the nine group winners plus four runners up which are decided from play-offs.

There are a couple of surprises in the pots – France, in pot B, have slipped below Norway and Greece, partly because of a disastrous 2010 World Cup which was even worse than England’s, but now Mystic Meg wannabe Raymond Domenech has left, they will undoubtedly be a strong force again. Alongside them, Montenegro, in the second-to-bottom group for the Euro qualifiers simply because they were at the time a new state, have found their rightful place.

If Raymond Domenech is French football’s enemy, then Jakup Emil Hansen should be Wales’, with the Faroese student spotting (somehow) the tiniest mistake in FIFA’s calculations which pushed his homeland above the Welsh in the rankings, and crucially into the higher pot.

It seems ridiculous that a team containing Aaron Ramsey, Craig Bellamy and Gareth Bale ranks alongside Europe’s bottomfeeders, but that’s how it’s ended up and Gary Speed faces an even harder task than usual this time round. Whilst we are in pot F, Borat should be having a long hard look at himself too – the Kazakh population of 16 million shamefully being around 500 times that of higher-ranked Liechtenstein.

Anyway, there are 52,488 possible groups for England to be drawn into, and here are some possibilities. It would of course be easy to just pick the first and last teams from each pot, but this wouldn’t take into account the failings of FIFA’s rankings – teams such as Ukraine and Poland being artificially low due to a lack of competitive action – or similarly the failings of England, who can struggle against other home nations or a certain breed of former Soviet republic.

Best for England: England, Slovakia, Hungary, Albania, Azerbaijan, San Marino.

Worst for England: England, France, Czech Republic, Romania, Macedonia, Wales

Most Exciting: England, France, Ireland, Scotland, Cyprus, Wales

Most Boring: England, Montenegro, Belarus, Lithuania, Finland, Iceland

Best for Wales: Norway, Montenegro, Hungary, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands, Wales

Worst for Wales: Spain, France, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Finland, Wales

*If you must know: there will be eight groups of six teams, with one each from pots A to F, and one group of five teams, one each from pots A to E. Russia and Georgia cannot be drawn together, and neither can Armenia and Azerbaijan due to political tensions. The nine group winners will advance straight to the finals with the eight best runners up (not including games against the bottom team in the group), going into four two-legged play-off ties, the winners from which will also be going to Brazil, giving a grand total of 13 European teams at the finals. Was that really worth it?

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